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Vertigo 17 January 2010

Posted by marisacat in Inconvenient Voice of the Voter.
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Valencia, Spain: A member of the Swiss Alinghi sailing team sits astride the spinnaker poles    [Kai Foersterling/EPA]

If I look at this picture too long, the room I am in tips, top to bottom.  But it’s more than reminiscent of the general view, day to day, lately…

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1. catnip - 17 January 2010

Big headline: “Stars Brave Rain at Golden Globes”

Oh, how courageous of them! Braving the rain!

Madman in the Marketplace - 17 January 2010

some of them were exposed to the elements for MINUTES!!!!

😦

marisacat - 17 January 2010

oh I can top that…

I jsut saw a clip of the Haitian PM, not Preval but the one just under him…. WHINING at being stuck at the airport with “no secretaries and no cars”.

Lordy.

I always say, the WRONG ones die.

2. BooHooHooMan - 17 January 2010

LOL.

Intrade getting ugly. (0+ / 0-)

😦

by Blicero on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 05:34:37 PM PST

*
What do I win if I bet $350 on Coakley? (0+ / 0-)

and she wins???

Hatred paralyses life; love releases it. Hatred confuses life; love harmonizes it. Hatred darkens life; love illuminates it

by GoogleBonhoeffer on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 06:42:42 PM PST

*
First seat at the Rapture (0+ / 0-)

Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance
and conscientious stupidity. – Martin Luther King, Jr.

by Robert Davies on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 07:15:48 PM PST

3. BooHooHooMan - 17 January 2010

😆 😆 😆

First person report – phone banking for Martha Coakley tonight in Arlington
by: AmberPaw
Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 20:20:53 PM EST

Tonight I hosted phone banking for Martha Coakley in my house. Our phone bank ran from 2:00 PM to 7:00 PM, and the trainers were Nora Mann and Joan Axelrod Lehrich of OFA.

From 2:00 PM – 4:30 PM we had 17 callers, tucked into the many nooks and crannies of our eccentric home, including one in the laundry room, one in the dead end corridor by the back door where we store squash, two in my home office, etc. We also had extra power strips set up in each room. The three land lines were all in play as not everyone has a cell phone.

We served both vegan and meat chili with grated cheese, corn bread, and various snacks provided by us and others, as well as a samovar of hot water for tea [remember, I am Russian-American], and an endless pitcher of lemon-water for dry tired throats.
There’s More… :: (3 Comments, 229 words in story)

So the Phone bank ran from 2 to 7 and they had 17 callers from 2 to 4:30.

THE THING IS , THO – You can never underestimate the value of genuine Russian Revolutionary Chili Chow Down session lasting 3 and 1/2 hours after the first couple hours of calling.

Chai! Lemon Water! Bread!

catnip - 17 January 2010

Heads are splodin’ at the Great Orange Satan…

look at this poll! yay!
but how about this one??
Polls suck!

I predict Coakley loses by 5%. But if the Dems are going to drag this out for weeks, like they promised, dkos may finally – in fact – spontaneously combust.

BooHooHooMan - 18 January 2010

Hey catnip, check this out…
Sort of a Max Blumenthal vid of a bunch of the college kids outside of Ob’s Coakley gig this afternoon.

5 or no 5, I think you’re right about it being a clear win, whatever it is.
Because with this kind of momentum following that debate and a series of WTF Impressions she left down the homestretch I don’t see it being a recount sized squeeker for him…I thought a week ago she’d win between 5 and 9 …
Her “miracle” at this point would be to win at all..
If Rasmussen or Quinnipiac comes in confirming her cratering, a lot of that out of state GOTV won’t even bother to make the trip for her and it will be a rout…

I keep running this NJ template through my mind..
True that MA has more D++ advantage, but Ob and the Dems are weaker, people are even more pissed and broke ( December Retail sales way off after the usual cooked sunny numbers meant to spur spending)

Moreover, Coakley hasn’t anywhere near the kind money Corzine put on the streets..

So I think they’re well and truly fucked. LOL.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

she has been such a lousy candidate. And Ob seemed clueless at the so called rally. Saying he did not know Brown’s record… LOL

marisacat - 18 January 2010

😆

Joan Venocchi has a quick and dirty on recent Dem MASS corruption and low popularity… including one who was stuffing bribes in her bra. Gotta love the opticals.

Maybe Obama could go back up to Boston and perform a Revival Meeting……….. [/snicker]

GOOD LUCK!

marisacat - 18 January 2010

Some of this is just too delish. Via Politico’s Playbook:

John Podesta to The Daily Caller’s Jon Ward:

‘I’m glad the election is this Tuesday instead of last Tuesday. Had the election been last Tuesday there would have been a lot higher chance she would have lost. … It’s highly likely the president’s visit will push her over the finish line.’

I’m relieved. Aren’t you??? However Charlie Cook just moved it to a ”toss-up”, from “lean Dem”. (The delay was likely due to an extended dinner of chicken fried steak.)

Drudge banner, ‘KENNEDY DOESN’T EVEN KNOW HER NAME!’ Links to Hotline On Call’s Felicia Sonmez, ‘(Curiously, [Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), speaking with a gaggle of reporters after the event], mentioned Coakley repeatedly during his remarks to reporters, each time referring to her as ‘Marcia,’ not ‘Martha.’)’

4. Madman in the Marketplace - 17 January 2010

Revisionaries

Don McLeroy is a balding, paunchy man with a thick broom-handle mustache who lives in a rambling two-story brick home in a suburb near Bryan, Texas. When he greeted me at the door one evening last October, he was clutching a thin paperback with the skeleton of a seahorse on its cover, a primer on natural selection penned by famed evolutionary biologist Ernst Mayr. We sat down at his dining table, which was piled high with three-ring binders, and his wife, Nancy, brought us ice water in cut-crystal glasses with matching coasters. Then McLeroy cracked the book open. The margins were littered with stars, exclamation points, and hundreds of yellow Post-its that were brimming with notes scrawled in a microscopic hand. With childlike glee, McLeroy flipped through the pages and explained what he saw as the gaping holes in Darwin’s theory. “I don’t care what the educational political lobby and their allies on the left say,” he declared at one point. “Evolution is hooey.” This bled into a rant about American history. “The secular humanists may argue that we are a secular nation,” McLeroy said, jabbing his finger in the air for emphasis. “But we are a Christian nation founded on Christian principles. The way I evaluate history textbooks is first I see how they cover Christianity and Israel. Then I see how they treat Ronald Reagan—he needs to get credit for saving the world from communism and for the good economy over the last twenty years because he lowered taxes.”

BooHooHooMan - 17 January 2010

And these same kooks will blow right by the Darwinian concept of random events in the environment… yet slip right in to God’s Mysterious Ways of Willing it Away when some child dies when concrete sheared in bloody two…

marisacat - 17 January 2010

FFS.

Chris LLoyd (speaking of the gibber drool about the Fall of Communism and Reagan) hs a post up with a couple of long cuts from an article in the LRB… which is behind a sub wall. All about how we struggled to prop up the USSR or at least hold together for it its Eastern Bloc as it began to fall.

Fall of Communism on Reagan’s watch. Yeah because the weight of the fall was so great we could nto keep our handy enemy intact.

AND some tidy tidbits in the Chris Floyd post on how we reneged on the promises made to facilitate the re-unification of Germany… tidbits on how we betrayed Gorbachov

Nto that it matters… etc.

Geesh.

5. BooHooHooMan - 17 January 2010
6. catnip - 17 January 2010

pffft…

On a landmark visit to Rome’s main synagogue, the Pope said the Vatican helped Jews and “provided assistance, often in a hidden and discreet way”.

IOW, don’t blame us, we were your imaginary friends…

7. catnip - 17 January 2010
8. catnip - 17 January 2010

US accused of annexing airport as squabbling hinders aid effort in Haiti

The US military’s takeover of emergency operations in Haiti has triggered a diplomatic row with countries and aid agencies furious at having flights redirected.

Brazil and France lodged an official ­protest with Washington after US military aircraft were given priority at Port-au-Prince’s congested airport, forcing many non-US flights to divert to the Dominican Republic.

Brasilia warned it would not ­relinquish command of UN forces in Haiti, and Paris complained the airport had become a US “annexe”, exposing a brewing power struggle amid the global relief effort. The Red Cross and Médecins Sans Frontières also complained about diverted flights.

[…]

Flights seeking permission to land continuously circle the airport, which is damaged and has only a single runway, rankling several governments and aid agencies. “There are 200 flights going in and out every day, which is an incredible amount for a country like Haiti,” Jarry Emmanuel, air logistics officer for the UN’s World Food Programme, told the New York Times. “But most flights are for the US military. Their priorities are to secure the country. Ours are to feed. We have got to get those priorities in sync.”

France, which as the former ­colonial power expects a prominent role, ­protested when an emergency field hospital was turned back. The foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, said the airport was not for the international community but “an annexe of Washington”, according to France’s ambassador to Haiti, Didier Le Bret.

Brazil, which saw its leadership of the UN peacekeeping mission as a calling card of its burgeoning influence, was also indignant when three flights were not allowed to land. The foreign ministry reportedly asked Hillary Clinton to grant Brazil priority over chartered flights. Nelson Jobim, the defence minister, said Brazil would not relinquish command duties and suggested it, not Washington, would continue to lead UN forces. Analysts said it was vital command issues be resolved.

The Red Cross and Médecins Sans Frontières complained about flights with medical staff and equipment which were redirected to the Dominican Republic. “We are all going crazy,” said Nan Buzard, of the American Red Cross.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

Thank good ness other countries are speaking up and someone rep[orts on it, in between claiming there are lynching parties starting (think that was Times Online).

marisacat - 18 January 2010

Just catching up to MTP… and this very quote was raised:

“There are 200 flights going in and out every day, which is an incredible amount for a country like Haiti,” Jarry Emmanuel, air logistics officer for the UN’s World Food Programme, told the New York Times. “But most flights are for the US military. Their priorities are to secure the country. Ours are to feed. We have got to get those priorities in sync.”

Rajiv Shah, the too smooth new USAID administrator basically blew it off. No problems… and that the US mil is moving in vital needs goods as well.

Etc.

9. BooHooHooMan - 18 January 2010

Oh Yah – worthy of a real Freedom Ride:

ACTION: Protect Massachusetts Election. w/Poll
by LNK
9 comments

10. marisacat - 18 January 2010

Everything is going so well…

KABUL (Reuters) – Taliban gunmen launched a brazen assault on targets in the center of Kabul on Monday, with suicide bombers blowing themselves up at several locations and heavily armed militants fighting a pitched battle in a shopping center.

World

The insurgents failed in an apparent attempt to seize government buildings, but demonstrated their ability to cause mayhem at a time when U.S. President Barack Obama is trying to rally support for an expanded military mission to fight them.

It was the worst attack on the city in nearly a year. Gunfire and loud explosions shook the city and a huge column of smoke towered over its center, pouring out of the shopping center where gunmen battled security forces for hours.

After more than four hours of gunbattles, President Hamid Karzai said in a statement that “the security situation is under control and order has once again been restored.” ….

11. marisacat - 18 January 2010

I’ll bet this bullscheisse went down REALLY well. I think Christopher Edley is an idiot and I did nto realise he had risen to be Dean of Boalt Hall. I thought he was rambling around UCBerkeley with a lesser title…

Via that other idiot, Al Hunt in Bloomberg:

[T]he always seemingly cool Obama got testy and even despondent on occasion, the authors chronicled. There was friction between the “suits” — David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, David Plouffe, the white guys running the campaign — and Michelle Obama and close friend Valerie Jarrett.

Once, Obama brought his friend, Christopher Edley, dean of the University of California-Berkeley’s Boalt Hall School of Law, to lecture the suits on how they were abusing the candidate. ….

12. marisacat - 18 January 2010

hmm Apparently there are specially built ports on Haiti, 60 miles from Port au Prince just for cruise ships. With 12 foot walls around sun and sport areas, trinket shops.. and private security.

Where oh where would we all be without the paramilitary?

Still going, it seems.

Madman in the Marketplace - 18 January 2010

sick

13. marisacat - 18 January 2010

It was inevitable:

A witness at the trial of the California initiative banning same-sex marriage was testifying that such measures reflect moral disapproval of gays and lesbians when a lawyer for Proposition 8’s sponsors confronted him with the words of Barack Obama.

Marriage, the future president declared in writings and campaign appearances, is for a man and a woman.

“Is it possible for someone to have the position that he advocates and not morally disapprove of gays and lesbians?” asked attorney David Thompson.

Yes, replied George Chauncey, a Yale University historian, although he maintained that Obama clearly believed same-sex relationships to be inferior to opposite-sex unions. …

Read more: LINK

14. catnip - 18 January 2010

Just caught a comment by Barbara Walters on The View when they were talking about American aid to Haiti – she said that “other countries” “like Israel” are helping too. Odd that she felt the need to only mention Israel.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

Our media makes it look like only the Israeli’s brought a protable hosptial and surgery.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

Telegraph:

The UN food agency reached an agreement with the US-run airport, where only one runway is functioning, to prioritise the passage of planes carrying humanitarian aid, as the military came under fire for rushing through troops instead of supplies.

The tiny airport has been subject to severe bottlenecks since the disaster, as planes carrying aid and troops poured in from developed countries all over the world, without sufficient landing space.

10,000 US soldiers head to Haiti as violence intensifies An air slot system has been established at the airport to ensure humanitarian relief comes through as fast as possible, taking priority over further aircraft carrying troops and rescue equipment.

France had earlier criticised American relief efforts, claiming international aid programmes should be about helping the country, not “occupying'” it.

This is cryptic:

US officials confirmed three Americans were wounded in a “mass casualty event” at the airport on Friday afternoon, as aid started to trickle through.

So have we upped the dead count enough yet?

15. ts - 18 January 2010

my wife being Taiwanese watches the local news broadcasts over the internet. apparently there are a number of Taiwanese in Haiti rescuing people from the rubble, and as soon as they dig them out, the Americans swoop in to grab them and parade them in front of the media as if THEY saved them. needless to say you don’t want to hear the Mandarin/Taiwanese curses she was muttering under her breath.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

oh that is so classic. I get Taiwanese news here (San Francisco) and I will surf by them today…

Our local media is showing extractions and some water deliveries by various country’s personnel, but I think it is because we have some of literally EVERYONE here.. and relatives and non US nationals, US residents all alike, would notice…

16. ts - 18 January 2010

The US has not earned a good reputation recently in Taiwan. A few months ago the US forced Taiwan to accept all beef imports, despite Taiwan’s initial refusal to do so out of Mad Cow concerns. There’s a citizen movement to boycott beef imports, and many retailers are adding the point of origin to their packaging so consumers can avoid buying US beef. Score one for capitalist innovation.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

I have to say I like that kind of boycott. The money that people allocate for their personal needs in the home is an absolute discretion.

The US brand is pretty shakey in some areas I would think…

17. BooHooHooMan - 18 January 2010

I’ve been chortling at how a small contingent of a few brave comrades left on DK are just needling the fuck out of the Pwogs..

This one gets an A+ for Dog Whistling ..

Coakley Lets Pedophils Go Free? No!
by Sirenus
110 comments

Of course, the poodles went berzerk, demanding the diarist change the title which he DID, to

DOES Coakley Let Pedophiles Go Free? No!

LOL.
Meanwhile, Laura “Butt-end-of-the-board-to-forehead” Clawson
has this on offer:

MA-Sen: Brown Hiring Temps to GOTV
by Laura Clawson
Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 10:16:02 AM PST

Yep, really gonna resonate there, Laura. 🙄
No Fair! Whaaa!
Jeezis Criftstz .ze. { :spittle }
… at least it’s nice to know SOMEBODY is creating jobs.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

ugh…

I DID finally go read about the Amirault prosecution. I had literally never heard of it. I am sure we were already on the Great McMartin PreSchool Altar of Prosecutorial Horror out here… – I forget the exact years…

Those epople were destroyed wtithout any evidence except from mass hysterial

marisacat - 18 January 2010

BTW I already heard the R “answer” to the hiring of GOTV staff… they hire staff to work, the Dems pay people to vote.

Easy Peasy! We are back in the old neighborhoods, having never left!!

18. ts - 18 January 2010

Egad, they were right about the storms coming into SoCal. It’s 1:20 and nearly dark outside. Coming down in buckets. Palm leaves blowing off the trees.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

We got it too… there was a storm warning interruption on radio and TV at 11 am… and the rain stayed a little too long over my back so-called garden… a small flood on the back porch.

7 more days of this… and I hope it over shoots me…

19. marisacat - 18 January 2010

hymmm Just checking……..yeah we are still in the old neighborhoods… 😉

January 18, 2010

Categories:Election.

If it’s the day before the election …

… then conservatives are yelling about dead people still on Massachusetts voter rolls, and Democrats are pushing the news that a woman wrote on her Facebook page that she hopes Coakley gets shot.

(Sargent, in the second-linked item, says the other story Democrats were pushing, about burned campaign signs, was false.)

The goal, in both cases, is to lay the groundwork for claims — in a close election — of fraud and intimidation, respectively. Iowa Rep. Steve King is also on the ground to ensure, he says, that the election is “legitimate.”

ALSO: The Washington conservative group Americans for Limited Government, a self-described “citizen watchdog” group skeptical of Massachusetts’s election laws, says it’ll be keeping a close eye on the state’s “unlimited” fraud potential.

Posted by Ben Smith 01:55 PM

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catnip - 18 January 2010

Send in Jimmy Carter to monitor the election!

marisacat - 18 January 2010

oh too funny! Too predictable! Ben SMith has the vid…

Ben Smith: Political News and Analysis:

King III defends Coakley

January 18, 2010

Martin Luther King III endorsed Martha Coakley in a video today, and rejected Scott Brown’s charge she’d crossed the line in asking for votes at a King Day breakfast. “I thought it was certainly an appropriate ceremony to celebrate this holiday. Every campaign my father worked on, he encouraged people to vote,” he told the Boston Herald.

His last big “go”, he endorsed Edwards.

hm

20. Madman in the Marketplace - 18 January 2010

Secret “Jesus” Bible codes inscribed on American military weapons

One of the citations on the gun sights, 2COR4:6, is an apparent reference to Second Corinthians 4:6 of the New Testament, which reads: “For God, who commanded the light to shine out of darkness, hath shined in our hearts, to give the light of the knowledge of the glory of God in the face of Jesus Christ.”

marisacat - 18 January 2010

oh yes, in American lore who guides the missiles? They are so phenomenally accurate, we are told over and over.

Meanwhile today I saw a pic of Jesus’ face on a triangle of naan bread.

He lives!

21. BooHooHooMan - 18 January 2010

Chris “Peter Principle” Bowers,
The boy has done piddled all over his PAID self the last 72 hours..
ASTROOOOOOOOHHH-TURF.

No, it’s not a toss-up: Coakley still leads
by: Chris Bowers
Fri Jan 15, 2010 at 16:09

Even with the new ARG poll, Coakley still with an 83% chance to win
by: Chris Bowers
Sat Jan 16, 2010 at 02:14

A 3.00% lead for Coakley gives her an 83% chance of victory, according to my numbers. To put it a different way, …….
🙄 🙄 etc, etc, 😆 😉

Does this conflict with other election forecasters right now? Of course! In fact, the main reason I rolled out my new election forecasting method today, along with the research backing it up, it precisely because it conflicts with other election forecasters.

I had been excited about this new methodology for a while,

LOL!
RIIIIIGHT! AND WHAT METHODOLOGY, IS THAT, BOWERS ?!??!
PULLING IT RIGHT OUT BONY ASTROTURFER ASS?

You Bourgeois, Freeloading, No Credibility Fuck, YOU.

….but what better time to introduce it then when it conflicts with virtually all other election forecasters?

I could end up looking like an idiot. It wouldn’t be the first time. However, I believe there is strong evidence that this is the most accurate method currently available. < — 😆

Right now, my numbers still put Coakley at a clear advantage, and I am kind excited that everyone disagrees with me (which, in my experience, usually means I will end up looking like an idiot).
Discuss :: (21 Comments)

Well Chris is right about one thing: He’s an idiot. Frankly, he’s
an International ROCK STAR of an Idiot who, if the more idiotic Idiots could be choppered in , would be “on the ground” as it were, the lead act , if you will, if the Global Idiot Community put together an unprecedented “Idiot Aid” in a show of support for the desperate plight of Imbecility woldwide.

There’s More and EVEN Better Idiot Bowers today, as he’s circling the bowl.

Now even I agree it’s a toss-up, but still (slightly) favor Coakley
by: Chris Bowers
Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 00:20

Even I agree…” LOL.

More from the land of MAKE SHIT UP:

New Massachusetts polling analysis: why those calling the campaign “lean Brown” are wrong
by: Chris Bowers
Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 13:46

LOLZ.. Oh he’s not done yet..
Can you believe this damn fool?

More Massachusetts polling: Brown takes the lead, and Coakley isn’t a bad candidate
by: Chris Bowers
Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 15:30

Who let this flaming asshole on the internet, anyways?
😆 😆 😆

Welp.
UNLIKE Bowers, who is as transparently stupid as he is Partisan…
I see Nate Silver finally decided to cover his own more intelligent yet over-hyped ass.

538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite
by Nate Silver @ 5:26 PM

Coakley’s odds are substantially worse than they appeared to be 24 hours ago, when there were fewer credible polls to evaluate and there appeared to be some chance that her numbers were bottoming out and perhaps reversing. However, the ARG and Research 2000 polls both show clear and recent trends against her.
{Snip}
Indeed the model, which was optimized for regular rather than special elections, may be too slow to incorporate new information and may understate the magnitude of the trend toward Brown.

My question for reliable quants would be this:
What is the most likely forecasting in which the Donklephants ramrod the Mandated Crap Insurance Act regardless of the election, the Corps get off, the people get fucked, the Dems do the deed, in which they then take the blame?

IOW, we’re talking regression towards the mean.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

ooo I was there earlier… just read his entries from today. It was a SCREAM!!

The Dem Blahgs seem to have shifted gears…. THIS is at Ambinder’s site. By a poster I don’t know Justin Miller:

[T]he Boston audience didn’t pay attention to Obama when a heckler harangued him. The president stopped speaking, looked at the heckler, tried repeatedly to return to script, then awkwardly said “We’re OK” as the audience looked at the heckler. Obama seemed as feckless to control the crowd as a substitute teacher can be to a class. You can dismiss this as a silly episode, but it shows clearly the president doesn’t like to fight and is not spontaneous.

It may have been the tough week — the disaster in Haiti and endless negotiations on health care. But it is also true that Obama just doesn’t enjoy fighting. If Coakley loses, Obama will have to get much tougher on the GOP than he was with that heckler. Otherwise, Coakley will be far, far from the last Democrat to lose this year.

Sorry Justin, it was all visible in the campaign. If ya looked…

Axelrod and Rahm have some slobber out that Ob will be getting tougher. Yeah right.

😆

marisacat - 18 January 2010

hmm I am trolling thru Sully’s blog. Now if one takes the view, as I do, that Andrew Sullivan is an operative, most likely with a mixed agenda… well, he has repeated entries today, over and over trashing the run in MA.

I am starting to agree with Mickey Kaus, who may be a jerk and a creep… but is not stupid about poltiics, that the Dems decided they’d be relieved to lose in MA. They can walk away from a lot, with an array of their hard luck stories: We TRIIIIED… we did. But………… and then, but…………. And, remember! we’re the good guys but no body understands us!!

Etc.

And, elements in the nation and the party may have decded Ob’s a dud. (he was last year too and in 2007 too… and and)

The after event is gonna be brutal. And frankly a lot of Dems don’t seem to care. They seem to be calling it down from above! Manna! Let it flow!

Blissfully, I don’t care either!

🙄

ts - 19 January 2010

I totally agree with you on this. I really think they don’t want to pass any health care reform. I mean, why else make the bill look as bad as it could possibly be? Maybe make this final push, but we couldn’t get the blue dogs on board, and then coakley lost, and the dog ate my homework, and I SWEAR I set the alarm. It won’t happen again…

22. BooHooHooMan - 18 January 2010

Chris “Peter Principle” Bowers,
The boy has done piddled all over his PAID self the last 72 hours..
ASTROOOOOOOOHHH-TURF.

No, it’s not a toss-up: Coakley still leads
by: Chris Bowers
Fri Jan 15, 2010 at 16:09

Even with the new ARG poll, Coakley still with an 83% chance to win
by: Chris Bowers
Sat Jan 16, 2010 at 02:14

A 3.00% lead for Coakley gives her an 83% chance of victory, according to my numbers. To put it a different way, …….
🙄 🙄 etc, etc, 😆 😉

Does this conflict with other election forecasters right now? Of course! In fact, the main reason I rolled out my new election forecasting method today, along with the research backing it up, it precisely because it conflicts with other election forecasters.

I had been excited about this new methodology for a while,

LOL!
RIIIIIGHT! AND WHAT METHODOLOGY, IS THAT, BOWERS ?!??!
PULLING IT RIGHT OUT BONY ASTROTURFER ASS?

You Bourgeois, Freeloading, No Credibility Fuck, YOU.

….but what better time to introduce it then when it conflicts with virtually all other election forecasters?

I could end up looking like an idiot. It wouldn’t be the first time. However, I believe there is strong evidence that this is the most accurate method currently available. < — 😆

Right now, my numbers still put Coakley at a clear advantage, and I am kind excited that everyone disagrees with me (which, in my experience, usually means I will end up looking like an idiot).
Discuss :: (21 Comments)

Well Chris is right about one thing: He’s an idiot. Frankly, he’s
an International ROCK STAR of an Idiot who, if the more idiotic Idiots could be choppered in , would be “on the ground” as it were, the lead act , if you will, if the Global Idiot Community put together an unprecedented “Idiot Aid” in a show of support for the desperate plight of Imbecility woldwide.

There’s More and EVEN Better Idiot Bowers today, as he’s circling the bowl.

Now even I agree it’s a toss-up, but still (slightly) favor Coakley
by: Chris Bowers
Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 00:20

Even I agree…” LOL.

More from the land of MAKE SHIT UP:

New Massachusetts polling analysis: why those calling the campaign “lean Brown” are wrong
by: Chris Bowers
Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 13:46

LOLZ.. Oh he’s not done yet..
Can you believe this damn fool?

More Massachusetts polling: Brown takes the lead, and Coakley isn’t a bad candidate
by: Chris Bowers
Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 15:30

Who let this flaming asshole on the internet, anyways?
😆 😆 😆

Welp.
UNLIKE Bowers, who is as transparently stupid as he is Partisan…
I see Nate Silver finally decided to cover his own more intelligent yet over-hyped ass.

538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite
by Nate Silver @ 5:26 PM

Coakley’s odds are substantially worse than they appeared to be 24 hours ago, when there were fewer credible polls to evaluate and there appeared to be some chance that her numbers were bottoming out and perhaps reversing. However, the ARG and Research 2000 polls both show clear and recent trends against her.
{Snip}
Indeed the model, which was optimized for regular rather than special elections, may be too slow to incorporate new information and may understate the magnitude of the trend toward Brown.

My question for reliable quants would be this:
What is the most likely forecasting in which the Donklephants ramrod the Mandated Crap Insurance Act regardless of the election, the Corps get off, the people get fucked, the Dems do the deed, in which they then take the blame?

IOW, we’re talking regression towards the mean.

catnip - 18 January 2010

Well, one thing is clear: if Coakley loses, it’s all Jane Hamsher’s fault.

23. Madman in the Marketplace - 18 January 2010

Naomi Klein: How Corporate Branding Took Over the White House

In recent years, however, I have found myself doing something I swore I had finished with: rereading the branding gurus quoted in the book. This time, however, it wasn’t to try to understand what was happening at the mall but rather at the White House – first under the presidency of George W Bush and now under Barack Obama, the first US president who is also a superbrand.

There are many acts of destruction for which the Bush years are rightly reviled – the illegal invasions, the defiant defenses of torture, the tanking of the global economy. But the administration’s most lasting legacy may well be the way it systematically did to the US government what branding-mad CEOs did to their companies a decade earlier: it hollowed it out, handing over to the private sector many of the most essential functions of government, from protecting borders to responding to disasters to collecting intelligence. This hollowing out was not a side project of the Bush years, it was a central mission, reaching into every field of governance. And though the Bush clan was often ridiculed for its incompetence, the process of auctioning off the state, leaving behind only a shell – or a brand – was approached with tremendous focus and precision.

One company that took over many services was Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest defense contractor. “Lockheed Martin doesn’t run the United Slates,” observed a 2004 New York Times exposé. “But it does help run a breathtakingly big part of it . . . It sorts your mail and totals your taxes. It cuts Social Security cheques and counts the United States census. It runs space flights and monitors air traffic. To make all that happen, Lockheed writes more computer code than Microsoft.”

No one approached the task of auctioning off the state with more zeal than Bush’s much-maligned defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld. Having spent 20-odd years in the private sector, Rumsfeld was steeped in the corporate culture of branding and outsourcing. His department’s brand identity was clear: global dominance. The core competency was combat. For everything else, he said (sounding very much like Bill Gates), “We should seek suppliers who can provide these non-core activities efficiently and effectively.”

The Bush administration’s determination to mimic the hollow corporations it admired extended to its handling of the anger its actions inspired around the world. Rather than actually changing or even adjusting its policies, it launched a series of ill-fated campaigns to “rebrand America” for an increasingly hostile world. Watching these cringeful attempts, I was convinced that Price Floyd, former director of media relations at the State Department, had it right. After resigning in frustration, he said that the United States was facing mounting anger not because of the failure of its messaging but because of the failure of its policies. “I’d be in meetings with other public-affairs officials at State and the White House,” Floyd told Slate magazine. “They’d say: ‘We need to get our people out there on more media.’ I’d say: ‘It’s not so much the packaging, it’s the substance that’s giving us trouble.'” A powerful, imperialist country is not like a hamburger or a running shoe. America didn’t have a branding problem; it had a product problem.

I used to think that, but I may have been wrong. When Obama was sworn in as president, the American brand could scarcely have been more battered – Bush was to his country what New Coke was to Coca-Cola, what cyanide in the bottles had been to Tylenol. Yet Obama, in what was perhaps the most successful rebranding campaign of all time, managed to turn things around. Kevin Roberts, global CEO of Saatchi & Saatchi, set out to depict visually what the new president represented. In a full-page graphic commissioned by the stylish Paper Magazine, he showed the Statue of Liberty with her legs spread, giving birth to Barack Obama. America, reborn.

So, it seemed that the United States government could solve its reputation problems with branding – it’s just that it needed a branding campaign and product spokesperson sufficiently hip, young and exciting to compete in today’s tough market. The nation found that in Obama, a man who clearly has a natural feel for branding and who has surrounded himself with a team of top-flight marketers. His social networking guru, for instance, is Chris Hughes, one of the young founders of Facebook. His social secretary is Desirée Rogers, a glamorous Harvard MBA and former marketing executive. And David Axelrod, Obama’s top adviser, was formerly a partner in ASK Public Strategies, a PR firm which, according to Business Week, “has quarterbacked campaigns” for everyone from Cablevision to AT&T. Together, the team has marshalled every tool in the modem marketing arsenal to create and sustain the Obama brand: the perfectly calibrated logo (sunrise over stars and stripes); expert viral marketing (Obama ringtones); product placement (Obama ads in sports video games); a 30-minute infomercial (which could have been cheesy but was universally heralded as “authentic”); and the choice of strategic brand alliances (Oprah for maximum reach, the Kennedy family for gravitas, and no end of hip-hop stars for street cred).

The first time I saw the “Yes We Can” video, the one produced by Black Eyed Peas front man will.i.am, featuring celebrities speaking and singing over a Martin Luther Kingesque Obama speech, I thought: finally, a politician with ads as cool as Nike.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

yeah that shitty marketing from will.i.am I thought was disgusting. As disgusting as Fairey’s posters and the 26 year old’s speeches that were a I’ll Promise You a Rose Garden SUCKAS extravagnaza..

“Branding” however can get interesting. I read today that Brown used JFK as to apply to himslef, in terms of taxes. And certainly Ob tried to pull Reagan’s always rosy cadaver cheeks over his own face.

GOOD LUCK TO THEM ALL.

Madman in the Marketplace - 18 January 2010

This preference for symbols over substance, and this unwillingness to stick to a morally clear if unpopular course, is where Obama decisively parts ways with the transformative political movements from which he has borrowed so much (the pop-art posters from Che, his cadence from King, his “Yes We Can!” slogan from the migrant farmworkers – si se puede). These movements made unequivocal demands of existing power structures: for land distribution, higher wages, ambitious social programs. Because of those high-cost demands, these movements had not only committed followers but serious enemies. Obama, in sharp contrast not just to social movements but to transformative presidents such as FDR, follows the logic of marketing: create an appealing canvas on which all are invited to project their deepest desires but stay vague enough not to lose anyone but the committed wing nuts (which, granted, constitute a not inconsequential demographic in the United States). Advertising Age had it right when it gushed that the Obama brand is “big enough to be anything to anyone yet had an intimate enough feel to inspire advocacy”. And then their highest compliment: “Mr Obama somehow managed to be both Coke and Honest Tea, both the megabrand with the global awareness and distribution network and the dark-horse, upstart niche player.”

Another way of putting it is that Obama played the anti-war, anti-Wall Street party crasher to his grassroots base, which imagined itself leading an insurgency against the two-party monopoly through dogged organization and donations gathered from lemonade stands and loose change found in the crevices of the couch. Meanwhile, he took more money from Wall Street than any other presidential candidate, swallowed the Democratic party establishment in one gulp after defeating Hillary Clinton, then pursued “bipartisanship” with crazed Republicans once in the White House.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

Guess the orgasm is over.

Madman in the Marketplace - 18 January 2010

I don’t think she was ever a supporter … she’s been pretty critical since the inauguration.

marisacat - 18 January 2010

I’d like her to drop the damned preamble she goes thru about likeing Ob, respecting Ob, etc.. and so on and so forth before her [so far] mild criticism. I am positive she knows better…. but the ugly truth is people roll over for the party, for access. For fear of being broadly cut off.

It really is over. and I think a lot of Dems are relieved.

24. Madman in the Marketplace - 18 January 2010

Naomi Klein in moderation, I think.

25. marisacat - 18 January 2010

hmm saw this at The Corner, about the “big” rally with Ob yesterday.

Feel the Enthusiasm [Rich Lowry]

Karen Tumulty per the Tweet Tracker:

“Coakley rally, set to start in five minutes in middle school gym, is 3/4 empty. They’ve pulled curtain across middle of gym.”

01/18 04:46 PMShare

26. marisacat - 18 January 2010

neue…

https://marisacat.wordpress.com/2010/01/18/works-for-me/

…………. 😯 ……….


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